There are three basic scenarios for the medium-term development of AI. A first base scenario can be combined with either of the other two.

The base scenario is that the development of weak AI will continue. Programming will lead to increasingly refined single-task feats. This type of AI can be used in manufacturing, healthcare, administration and some services, but its constraints are apparent. Once it is dedicated to a function, it is not able to perform another. And it can only perform tasks with limited scope for unforeseen factors. Still, weak AI can free up human labor capabilities and work more precisely. It can also potentially lower costs.

Building on the base scenario, one possibility is the development of strong AI in an upward concave curve. The first developments would make larger progress than subsequent ones. There would be a diminishing marginal increase of benefits to strong AI innovation with time. This scenario would confirm the claim that there are limits to what machines can learn. If there is a fundamental difference between human and nonhuman intelligence, then strong AI will develop only to a point. This is not necessarily bad news. While teaching computers, scientists could find out a lot about human intelligence and discover new programming principles. These benefits could make it worth pursuing artificial general intelligence even if research falls short of creating strong AI. It could also lead to humans specializing in some areas and machines in others, which would bring welfare gains. 

Strong AI could also develop in an upward convex curve. The first steps would be arduous but later developments would accelerate. In this scenario, there would be no difference between human and machine intelligence, and therefore no limitations to what strong AI can learn. Coming up with the first building blocks of artificial general intelligence is difficult because it involves discovering new programming principles and new hardware. But once those are in place, innovation could speed up. During the Industrial Revolution, building the first machines and connecting them to a power grid was difficult. But once the technology became widespread, new inventions multiplied. In this scenario, strong AI could usher in a new way of organizing human life – most likely for the better. Read On: